Analysis of market competition pattern and after-sales market demand space of automobile wheel bearing industry in 2020

         The auto parts after-sales market demand comes from auto repair and maintenance, which has the characteristics of rigid and repetitive consumption. As it corresponds to the number of autos, it is more stable than auto sales, so it is less affected by the economic cycle.

　　 In addition, due to the large number of models in use, the superimposition of consumer fashion and personalized consumption has led to the increasing popularity of various forms of installation and modification, making the aftermarket component demand present in multiple varieties and small batches.

The Research Report on the Development Status and Market Prospects of China's Automobile Wheel Bearing Industry released by Leading Industry Research Center shows that the business model of the OEM market is 2B, and the AM market is 2C. Consumers can according to their preferences and the degree of damage to the car As well as the items that need to be repaired, choose different repair plans and parts for different situations. Therefore, the products in the after-sales market are not uniform, not limited to supporting factory parts, and a larger number of non-supporting factory parts, including imported parts, general-purpose parts, etc. This provides a living space for different types of component manufacturers, so the market concentration is low.

　　Automotive wheel bearing market pattern

        Global pattern: In the global market, the international advanced automotive wheel bearing unit manufacturers mainly include: Sweden's SKF, the United States TIMKEN, Germany FAG, Japan NSK, JTEKT, NTN, etc., occupying most of the world's mainstream car OEM supporting market . In the AM market, due to regional differences and consumer preferences, demand is in the form of multiple varieties and small batches, giving more SMEs opportunities to participate. In the after-sales markets of developed countries in Europe and the United States, wheel bearing companies in developing countries occupy a larger share with their obvious cost advantages.

         Domestic pattern: In the domestic OEM market, automobile wheel bearing units of OEMs are mainly provided by foreign joint ventures or wholly-owned enterprises. For example, Swedish SKF's supporting joint ventures in China include: Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW-Volkswagen, Dongfeng Shenlong, Shanghai GM , Changan Ford, etc.; supporting independent brands include: Changan, Chery, Brilliance, etc. In recent years, a few domestic manufacturers of wheel bearing units with independent brands have begun to break through and enter the OEM supporting market. For example, Wanxiang Qianchao has become a wheel bearing unit supplier for OEMs such as Volkswagen, Changan, Chery, and BYD. In the domestic AM market, the 4S shop system supporting original parts is still the most mainstream supporting model. Therefore, the domestic AM market pattern under this model basically follows the OEM market pattern.

　　 Automotive wheel bearing aftermarket space

　　 Demand for automotive wheel bearing units in the AM market = inventory (units) X 4 (sets/unit) X utilization rate of hub bearing units X average annual maintenance rate.

　　 Ownership: According to data from the National Development and Reform Commission, China's car ownership in 2019 is about 260 million. Among them, the number of passenger cars is about 210 million, and the number of commercial vehicles is about 50 million.

　　Utilization rate of wheel hub bearing unit: The utilization rate of passenger wheel hub bearing unit is assumed to be 100%; the utilization rate of commercial wheel hub bearing unit, referring to the proportion of small and medium-sized commercial vehicles in commercial vehicles, conservatively takes 20%.

Average annual maintenance rate: The general use mileage of passenger wheel hub bearing units is 80,000-100,000 kilometers, and it needs to be replaced every 5-6 years. The average annual maintenance rate is conservatively determined to be 16.7%; the use mileage of commercial vehicle hub bearing units is generally Between 80,000 and 100,000 kilometers, it needs to be replaced every 4-5 years, and the average annual maintenance rate is conservatively determined to be 20%.

　　 Bicycle value: The company's passenger wheel bearing AM market unit price is about 120 yuan, with 4 sets of bicycles, and the bicycle value is about 480 yuan. The AM market unit price of the company's commercial wheel bearings is about 900 yuan, with 4 or 6 sets of bicycles, and the value of the bicycle is about 3,600 yuan.

　　 Based on the above calculations, it is estimated that China's automotive wheel bearing AM market space is about 24 billion yuan.